Theses

What I believe, and what I did about it

Each period below is one view of the market, the moves it led to, and how the portfolio did against the S&P 500 while it lasted.

Current · Since Oct 6, 2026−0.3%vs S&P −0.1% so far

Late cycle: cut stock risk, keep bitcoin as the engine

The expansion is late and tilting toward stagflation. Hiring has stalled, inflation is back above 3% with oil over $100, and the Fed is raising rates with the 10-year above 5.2%. The portfolio was built for one thing going right (crypto) and was under-protected against the two likeliest bad outcomes: a rates-driven stock sell-off or a recession.

What I'm planning for (next 6–12 months)

  • Late-cycle grind Oil stays high, the Fed hikes once more then pauses, growth slows to 1–2%.45%
  • Shock into recession Oil or long yields spike, layoffs start, stocks fall 15–25%.30%
  • Soft landing A Hormuz deal brings oil down, inflation falls, the rally broadens.25%

What I did, and why

  1. Trimmed eight of my biggest single-stock winnersCRWDMETANVDAASMLNXPIPLTRCEGRYCEY
    Gains are concentrated in AI and chip names while most stocks are already well off their highs. The big cloud companies report in late October and set 2027 spending; a disappointment would hit the chip makers and the AI power names at the same time.
  2. Added gold, short-term TIPS and T-billsGLDSTIPBIL
    Gold is the one holding that helps in both a crisis and an inflation shock. Short TIPS pay a real yield of about 2.7% on top of inflation, which bills only match if inflation falls.
  3. Added utilities with little overlap with AIXLU
    Defensive income for a slowdown, without doubling up on the AI data-centre bet I already hold through the power names.
  4. Hedged bitcoin and the Nasdaq instead of selling my core bitcoinSBITSQQQ
    Small inverse positions offset part of a sharp fall in bitcoin or tech stocks. They lose value over time, so they are sized as insurance, not as a bet.
  5. Sold the volatility and copper-miner fundsVIXMCOPX
    The volatility fund had lost about 14% to roll costs while markets were calm; the inverse ETFs respond more directly to the risks I care about.

What would change my mind

  • The big cloud companies raise 2027 spending plans and the rest of the market starts outperforming.
  • The 10-year falls back below 5% while inflation cools.
  • Oil drops below $80 on a Hormuz deal (soft landing): then the hedges cost money and I should add risk back.

Background: Five Investors, One Market: Burry, Tudor Jones, Dalio, Druckenmiller and Buffett · Why Bitcoin: Deficits, a Fixed Supply and the Case for a Hard Asset · When the Debt Comes Due: Currency Cycles and the Dollar

How the portfolio has shifted

  • Bitcoin
  • Other crypto
  • Stocks
  • Real assets
  • Bonds & cash
  • Hedges
0%50%100%BitcoinOther cryptoStocksReal assetsBonds & cashHedges2022202320242025202677. Late cycle: cut stock risk, keep bitcoin as the engine66. Adding real assets and hedges55. Broadening into AI, power and defense stocks44. Bitcoin-led, with a T-bill cushion33. Spot ETFs arrive: from GBTC to bitcoin itself22. Staying concentrated in crypto for the recovery11. Crypto as the core, through a bear market

Share of the portfolio in each asset type at the end of each quarter, and today. Numbers mark where each period below begins.

Earlier periods

  1. 6
    Dec 2025 – Oct 2026

    Adding real assets and hedges

    +2.4%S&P +14.5%
    Bitcoin 37% · Stocks 29% · Bonds & cash 16%

    Backdrop War with Iran disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz from March and pushed oil above $100. Gold set a record near $5,600 in January. The Fed went from cutting to hiking again in September.

  2. 5
    Dec 2024 – Dec 2025

    Broadening into AI, power and defense stocks

    −0.5%S&P +17.7%
    Stocks 40% · Bitcoin 35% · Bonds & cash 12%

    Backdrop AI data-centre spending kept climbing. An April tariff shock took the S&P 500 down about 19% from its high before it recovered. The dollar fell about 10% over the year, and bitcoin peaked near $126,000 in October.

  3. 4
    Jun 2024 – Dec 2024

    Bitcoin-led, with a T-bill cushion

    +32.9%S&P +8.4%
    Bitcoin 62% · Other crypto 23% · Bonds & cash 13%

    Backdrop The Fed began cutting rates in September. Bitcoin passed $100,000 in December after the US election.

  4. 3
    Dec 2023 – Jun 2024

    Spot ETFs arrive: from GBTC to bitcoin itself

    +44.2%S&P +15.2%
    Bitcoin 52% · Other crypto 26% · Bonds & cash 11%

    Backdrop The SEC approved spot bitcoin ETFs on January 10, 2024, and GBTC converted to an ETF. Bitcoin set a new high above $73,000 in March.

  5. 2
    Dec 2022 – Dec 2023

    Staying concentrated in crypto for the recovery

    +164.0%S&P +26.2%
    Bitcoin 57% · Other crypto 33% · Real assets 4%

    Backdrop GBTC ended 2022 at a discount of roughly 45% to the bitcoin it held. Grayscale won its court case against the SEC in August, which pointed to an ETF conversion, and bitcoin rose about 155% for the year.

  6. 1
    Feb 2022 – Dec 2022

    Crypto as the core, through a bear market

    −56.4%S&P −15.0%
    Bitcoin 45% · Other crypto 41% · Stocks 12%

    Backdrop The Fed raised rates from near zero to over 4%. Bitcoin fell about 64%, and the Terra/Luna (May) and FTX (November) collapses hit the whole crypto market.

Results are actual, time-weighted returns for each period (excluding the IRA); 2022–24 are estimated from dated portfolio snapshots. Mix bars show the portfolio at the end of each period.

A record of the author's own views and decisions. Not investment advice.