Risk
Risk & rules
Stress tests on current weights (as of Oct 4, 2026), concentration, and the rules every trade is checked against. Percentages only.
−29.7%S1 · Combined crisis
−27.8%S2 · Crypto winter
−18.3%S3 · Inflation / rates shock
Breachvs -20% limit
Stress scenarios
| Scenario | Assumptions | Portfolio |
|---|---|---|
| S1 Combined crisis | Limit test. Equities −25%, spreads +150bp, rates −50bp, BTC −40%, ETH −50%, other crypto −60%, commodities −20%. | −29.7% |
| S2 Crypto winter | Crypto-led drawdown with equities mostly intact. | −27.8% |
| S3 Inflation / rates shock | Rates +150bp, equities −15%, commodities +10%. | −18.3% |
| Floor Minimum achievable S1 | If every position that can be sold were in cash; the locked 1.0 BTC remains. | −12.8% |
Shocks are applied together and are deliberately severe; they are not forecasts. Single stocks use beta (1.5 for high-volatility names, 1.0 otherwise).
Concentration
Rules & settings
| Drawdown limit (S1) | -20% |
| Drawdown scope | TOTAL |
| Monthly churn cap | 25% of NAV |
| Traditional orders per day | 1 |
| BTC unit floor | 1 |
| Minimum hold period (days) | Not set |
| Employer pre-clearance | Not set |
| Restricted list | Not set |
| Turnover this month | 0% of 25% |
| Do-not-rebuy list | Empty |
New money goes to ETFs, funds, fixed income, commodities or crypto only. Bitcoin is never sold below 1.0 BTC.
Single stocks 32 positions · 26.5% of portfolio
Legacy positions: held or trimmed, never added to. 32 without a keep-reason yet.
| Holding | Weight | On cost | Reason to keep |
|---|---|---|---|
| RYCEY Rolls-Royce Holdings | 2.2% | +83.5% | Not set |
| CRWD CrowdStrike | 2.0% | +181.9% | Not set |
| GEV GE Vernova | 1.8% | +184.2% | Not set |
| META Meta Platforms | 1.4% | +16.3% | Not set |
| GOOGL Alphabet | 1.3% | +103.1% | Not set |
| AAPL Apple | 1.2% | +49.7% | Not set |
| LMT Lockheed Martin | 1.0% | +12.9% | Not set |
| MSFT Microsoft | 1.0% | +31.0% | Not set |
| CEG Constellation Energy | 1.0% | +15.8% | Not set |
| NXPI NXP Semiconductors | 0.9% | +17.6% | Not set |
| NVDA NVIDIA | 0.9% | +110.0% | Not set |
| DHI D.R. Horton | 0.8% | +5.0% | Not set |
| PLD Prologis | 0.8% | +16.4% | Not set |
| NU Nu Holdings | 0.8% | +19.7% | Not set |
| NEE NextEra Energy | 0.7% | +8.6% | Not set |
| D Dominion Energy | 0.7% | +11.5% | Not set |
| ASML ASML Holding | 0.7% | +151.4% | Not set |
| PLTR Palantir | 0.7% | +135.8% | Not set |
| COST Costco | 0.7% | −1.5% | Not set |
| TSLA Tesla | 0.7% | +32.9% | Not set |
| XYZ Block | 0.7% | +23.9% | Not set |
| KMI Kinder Morgan | 0.6% | +8.7% | Not set |
| BKH Black Hills Corp | 0.6% | +18.8% | Not set |
| PSA Public Storage | 0.6% | −3.6% | Not set |
| WMB Williams Companies | 0.5% | +17.0% | Not set |
| BWXT BWX Technologies | 0.5% | +27.8% | Not set |
| NNN NNN REIT | 0.5% | −2.1% | Not set |
| HON Honeywell | 0.4% | +4.2% | Not set |
| BHP BHP Group | 0.3% | +68.7% | Not set |
| HONA Honeywell Aerospace | 0.3% | — | Not set |
| ORCL Oracle | 0.3% | 0.0% | Not set |
| UBER Uber | 0.1% | −8.7% | Not set |
Settings and keep-reasons live in src/data/os.json; editing it on GitHub updates this page in about a minute.